blog..com

Sure you can set off fireworks in October, but they’re certainly a lot more fun in July. I guess that’s kinda how I feel about the Mac-PC conversation.  It will be interesting to see what happens during the holidays, but it would have been outright fun to stand back and watch a “back to school” fight for market share… but alas…. It’s October so here we go.

Even with the new Windows 7 OS, the big advantage for PC-makers this holiday season will remain its low price point. This season, retail sales are expected to again drop slightly (see Business Week article), and even with sleekly designed iMacs, Apple really does not have a Macbook that fits into the holiday shopping budget of most families. Meanwhile, Netbooks are coming out in the $300’s. With many used laptop garnering $150+ in trade in through services like ours, Netbooks will become an affordable holiday gift for many families.

Still Apple enters the holidays with many advantages. PC makers can and will roll out new models, but Apple will remain the most coveted product on the block. Apple’s four-month-old Snow Leopard OS has better security than W7. There’s that lingering Vista debacle… and while W7 is improved, it’s taking a lot of slack for being difficult to upgrade (you have to back up your files, then reformat your PC, and then reinstalling all of your old programs, assuming you still have the CDs).

Microsoft’s answer?

“For the vast majority of people that get Windows 7, most will move to new hardware,” says Parri Munsell, Microsoft’s director for consumer product management.

Point? It doesn’t need to be easy to install because nobody is going to install it. Could that actually be true? Can PC makers expect that the vast majority of consumers who want W7 will go out and purchase a new computer?

I think so. Netbooks with flashy new features including touch screens will make up ground against Macs cool factor, and as I said considering lower price point for most PC laptops, they’ll win hands down. Windows 7 is looking like an enhanced OS that will inspire consumers to upgrade and I think even start to heal the wounds created by Vista. When Vista launched fewer than 20% of Windows users upgraded. I think this time around Microsoft can expect 50% or higher. Note: This fact does not give MS forgiveness for not stealing the “keep it simple” page from Apple’s playbook. Yes, the majority will not install the OS themselves…. But what about the minority that will?

Gazelle is a great barometer for how product introductions will fair in the market. Consider the new iPhone for example. When it came out, many people looked to trade in their used ones either immediately before or after the launch of the 3GS so they could get maximum value for their phone. We literally got flooded with thousands of phones within weeks of launch. So far laptops and desktops are showing similar pick up. Looking back 45 days, we’ve seen a 30%+ jump in computer trade-ins compared to the previous 45 days. And so far this week, PCs make up 4 of the top 5 products being traded in on gazelle.com.

The Mac-PC battle continues. And coming off Apple record profits, this holiday season promises to be interesting.